Today, whenever we dig into current global political affairs, the rise of China with its increasingly advanced capabilities is observed as challenging the established global order and influencing the US. This is forcing the US to significantly adjust its foreign and security policies to mitigate the challenges posed by China. This is making great power competition intensify and making the world truly unpredictable and volatile.
The rise of digital societies is continually monitoring the public’s daily life. If the monitoring data falls into the wrong hands, the lives of the general public may be in great danger. Security issues are evolving in nature, and no single solution is capable of managing them.
The “Intelligence Outlook 2025: An Intelligence-Based Assessment of the External Conditions for the Security of the Kingdom of Denmark” report by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service asserts that with the US becoming less engaged in NATO, Europe losing its influence and becoming militarily weaker, and Russia and China increasing their aggressive as well as non-aggressive strategies, the European continent is particularly vulnerable to threats. Moreover, we are facing a situation where big powers are first of all focusing on their national interests, and as consequence, they are using economic, military, and technological power in a coercive way. It all leads to the emergence of a global order which is more fragmented and confrontational.
Key highlights of the report
The report illustrates that despite the hybrid war tactics, Russia is still running its full, scale war in Ukraine. It is also stated that the hybrid war includes cyberattacks, sabotage, and espionage. The aim of such hybrid war tactics is a direct confrontation with NATO. The report, nevertheless, explains that there is no traditional military threat to Denmark currently.
The report points out that the Russian military position is intensifying in the Northern Europe and the Baltic region. The report believes that the war in Ukraine is likely to continue until at least 2026. Furthermore, Europe’s defense industry is being outpaced by the Russian defense industry because of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Underlining the growing trust deficit with the US regarding long-term US engagement in European security has further fueled hybrid operations. There have been continuous reports of active espionage against Denmark to gain strategic advantage in a potential NATO conflict.
Talking about China, the report mentions that there has been an increase in China’s support to Russia, as well as an emerging partnership between Russia and China to reduce US and Western global influence. China, as per the report, is using economic pressure tactics and military power to coerce other states, resulting in long-term strategic rivalry with the US, which is becoming inevitable. China has an ambition to achieve regional dominance in Asia as well as the profound objective of forceful reunification with Taiwan.
The United States, Russia, and China are all competing for increased influence in the Arctic. The US position as a security provider is becoming more and more doubtful. This has encouraged China and Russia to consider their move in the Arctic region. The report highlights that Russia is still the most powerful military actor and is intensifying its political and military confrontation in the Arctic. Even though Russia is under sanction, it is doing this by deepening its Arctic cooperation with China. This has resulted in the expansion of Chinese submarine and surface vessel capabilities in the Arctic region.
In the report, there are mentions of a rise in Islamist terrorist attacks, partly fueled by the Gaza conflict, as well as growing instability in Syria, causing IS to regain strength. Iranian presence and backing of the Houthis, which threaten Red Sea maritime traffic, show the potential for disturbance in the global supply chain.
In particular reference to Denmark’s security challenges, the report states that foreign state intelligence activities are targeting Denmark, particularly espionage, influence operations, and attempts to illegally procure technology and knowledge.
The report’s general assessment sums up that hybrid warfare, cyber operations, and proxy conflicts are increasingly the main tools of state competition that cause a decline of the international security environment. The long, term systemic competition between the West and the non-Western powers is getting more intense in Europe, Asia, the Arctic, and the Middle East.
Decoding the report
This report explores Denmark’s security challenges, Russia-China vs. US dynamics, European solidarity against Russian aggression, and Russia’s, China’s, and the US’s engagement in the Arctic region, given the fact that China is not an Arctic country and Denmark is one of the prime participants in the Arctic region. Given that Denmark is a prosperous country with a high quality of life, any potential damage to its society through war or great power conflict is challenging.
Denmark is observing the current European political climate on the basis that if the Russia-Ukraine war becomes frozen, Russian aggression may increase due to the necessity for Russia to demonstrate supremacy, making an attack on Denmark possible. Further, Denmark and other Scandinavian and Baltic countries are vulnerable in the sense that whenever Russia perceives NATO as divided or the US as no longer supporting Europe including Scandinavia, Denmark, and Nordic countries, Russia may attack. Europe has a target of raising the defense budget to 3 to 5 percent of GDP to boost its defense capabilities. If this does not happen due to certain reasons and Russian military might increases, then Russia’s conventional warfare may impact Denmark and other countries.
Currently, Russian demands in the Russia-Ukraine war are clear-cut for entering into a peace agreement. Russia has demanded recognition of the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions: Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia as well as Crimea, as Russian territory. Further, to completely block NATO’s eastward expansion, Russia has demanded guarantees that NATO will not admit new members in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. The question of arming Ukraine is also a critical issue. Russia is demanding the complete demilitarization of Ukraine through ending all Western support to Ukraine, including the provision of military equipment, intelligence, and hardware.
Conclusion
The publication of this intelligence report by Danish intelligence for enabling public awareness of surrounding developments is crucial. Such reports help security analysts, politicians, media, and independent researchers understand how intelligence services think and interpret agendas. It is also a valuable research reference material.
The report provides a sense of the modus operandi of the intelligence world, in which agencies use intermediaries to recruit individuals to carry out espionage activities. It is even more striking to know how recruitment is happening through social media, and how the recruited individuals often do not know whom they are working with. Therefore, the report insists that public should critically analyze and vet offers before accepting anything online to avoid for becoming prey.
