Middle East War Could Add $63 Billion to US Oil Profits as Prices Near $100

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Bindu Oped

Rystad Energy has calculated that if the war in the Middle East continues, US oil producers could gain an additional $63 billion in profits this year, with prices soaring past $100 per barrel. This is due to the US-Israel attacks on Iran, which has created a financial bonanza for the US. The growing revenue for the US means it is able to finance the ongoing war against Iran.

Analysts describe the cause of this phenomenon by stating that, due to the war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a smaller amount of oil is able to come out of the Gulf. This has created a rise in international prices. US shale groups are among the main players able to supply oil to the global market because they do not rely on the Middle East.

However, this advantage is not universal. The large oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and Shell are more vulnerable to the side effects of the crisis. This is because of the fact that shipping blockages are limiting oil exports driven by reduced production in Gulf areas. Therefore, companies whose industrial and logistical bases are situated in the Middle East is suffering due to rising operational costs. However, those operating outside the region see their revenues increase due to rising prices.

The Financial Times reported that in normal times around 20 million barrels per day flow through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Goldman Sachs stated that due to the war, only around 2 million barrels are coming out of the strait. This creates supply shocks and becomes more rewarding for less geographically vulnerable producers, especially in North America.

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