The Geopolitical Puzzle of Afghanistan

Underlining the Joint Statement by participants of the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan, dated October 7, 2025, the key line was that all the delegates that represented the format (Afghanistan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Belarus as a guest), reaffirmed their unwavering support for the establishment of Afghanistan as an independent, united and peaceful state. In addition to this, all of the attendees, rejected the US intention to re-take the Bagram Air base in Afghanistan, calling it unacceptable.

Russia initiated the Moscow Format in 2016 to discuss regional security issues. This was the 7th meeting of the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan. For the first time, it was attended by the high-level Afghan delegation headed by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaqi. During meeting, issues like the development of economic and trade exchanges, developing regional economic projects with Afghan participation, and commitment to continue humanitarian support to the Afghan people were discussed. In addition to this, the attendees emphasized that Afghanistan’s soil should not be used as a threat to the security of neighboring countries and beyond, and that Afghanistan should be supported to undertake comprehensive measures for the elimination of terrorism.

India and Pakistan on Moscow Format Outcomes

India was represented by Ambassador Vinay Kumar in Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan, where he stated that India supports the Afghanistan’s independence, peace, and socioeconomic growth.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry wrote that it has noted the phrase “Afghan-owned, Afghan-led” peace process in Moscow Format. Ministry further writes that it was coined by Pakistan several years ago and is now becoming the international guiding principle for the settlement of Afghanistan. Pakistan stated that underlining the hard core socio-cultural, political and economic realities of Afghanistan, can alone restore peace in the country.

Visit to India and Pakistan’s Reaction

After the completion of the Moscow Format, Afghan Foreign Minister visited India for the first time since Afghanistan was taken over by the Taliban. The Joint Statement between India-Afghanistan specified that India appreciated the Afghanistan’s strong condemnation of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on 22th April 2025, and the sincere condolences and solidarity expressed with the people and Government of India.

These particular lines triggered Pakistan, and the next day Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Pakistan was summoned calling it a “clear violation of the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and the legal status of Jammu and Kashmir.” In the statement issued by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, it rejected the Afghan Acting Foreign Ministers’ declaration that terrorism is Pakistan’s internal problem. Countering this, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry further stated that it has repeatedly shared details with Afghanistan regarding the presence of Fitna-e-Khawarij and Fitna-e-Hindustan terrorist elements operating from Afghan soil against Pakistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry highlighted the spirit of good neighborliness and Islamic brotherhood and noting that Pakistan has hosted around four million Afghans for four decades.

Complex Dynamics

Now, let us understand through the table how the complex dynamics are shaping Afghanistan-Pakistan, Afghanistan-India, and the partners of Moscow Format.

Domain Implication / Role in Intersection
Regional diplomatic framing The Moscow Format on Afghanistan is serving as a mechanism for Afghanistan’s normalization process through engagement with regional powers, emphasizing sovereignty and the rejection of foreign military bases.
India’s calibrated engagement India’s announcement to upgrade its Kabul office to embassy status and its commitment to support Afghanistan’s socio-economic development acts as demonstration of regional power and a counterbalance to Pakistan’s influence.
Pakistan’s discomfort & defensive posture Pakistan’s rejection of the references made in the India-Afghanistan Joint Statement, the summoning of the Afghan envoy, as well as border retaliation, reflects a countering strategy.
Security / militant dimension Currently, the heated debate between Afghanistan and Pakistan is centered around Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militants, who carry out strikes inside Pakistan from Afghan soil, which has been denied by the Taliban authorities.
External powers & balance of influence The joint rejection of foreign military presence in Afghanistan by the Moscow Format’s attendees shows that regional actors want to engage with Afghanistan without extraterritorial partners. For Pakistan, the absence of the US might have implications for its alliances and leverages.
Legitimacy & recognition pressure The Taliban is engaging in both formal and multilateral settings to increase its globally visibility. In this regard, India’s hosting of the Afghan Foreign Minister, its upgrading of the mission to an embassy, and Russia’s recognition of the Taliban earlier in 2025 are parts of this trend.

Conclusion

Afghanistan is striving to attain credibility and legitimacy in the region. Pakistan itself is grappling with internal instability due to militant activities, as well as an influx of Afghan refugees pouring in from Afghanistan. India and Afghanistan are also deepening their alliance, a strategic counter to Pakistan. On the other hand, Russia has the reign over the Moscow Format, as emerging global power China is keeping events in close watch and is a participating member in Afghanistan’s transition. The US, on the other hand, is attempting to regain its influence by retaking the Bagram Air Base within Afghanistan. Overall, these are the region’s diverse and complex dynamics that shape Afghanistan. Only precise, calculated, and strategic leadership can navigate such a volatile environment at both the regional and national levels.

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